Promoted as the “gold standard” of evaluation, counterfactual evaluation is on the rise. This is one of the many findings from the new fteval cooperative study jointly conducted by the Austrian Institute for SME Research, Joanneum Research, and WPZ Research.

Counterfactual evaluations estimate the effect of a policy intervention by comparing what actually happened with what would have happened without it, typically using a comparable group that did not receive support. They link point A, the intervention, to point B, its outcome. Their appeal is quantification: a single number that makes the effect measurable and gives the findings weight in policy debates.

What happens when we ignore what is between A and B? What impact could counterfactual evaluations have? And what wishes do we further have for this method and the evaluation community?  

In this REvaluation podcast episode, we talk with Jakob Kofler from KMU Forschung Austria (SME Research Austria) about methods, conclusions, and recommendations.

Links:

• The study: Chancen & Grenzen kontrafaktischer Wirkungsanalysen für die österreichische FTI-Politik – eine Situationsanalyse - fteval repository
• Training in Vienna on 23 November 2026: Trainingsangebot: Kontrafaktische Wirkungsanalysen in österreichischen FTI-Evaluationen - fteval
• SIP talk with the Austrian Council on counterfactual evaluations on 19 October 2026, in German: https://forwit.at/sip-talk/kausalanalysen-in-der-oesterreichischen-fti-evaluierung/ 
• Related previous podcast episode: Folge #8 - Das AMDC: Für verknüpfte Mikrodaten ziehen wir alle Register - fteval (in German) 
• Subscription Newsletter - fteval (EN) & Newsletter - fteval (DE)

Musik: Urbana-Metronica (wooh-yeah mix) (ft. Morusque, Jeris, CSoul, Alex Beroza) by spinningmerkaba http://ccmixter.org/people/jlbrock44; SouljaUnit Remix of DeadRobot Music’s Surfy via https://freesound.org/people/SouljaUnit/sounds/640175/
Foto: Johnny Be Good

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